ABSTRACT
The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19), also known as SARS-CoV-2, is highly pathogenic and virulent, and it spreads very quickly through human-to-human contact. In response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. However, 5 months after the first confirmed case, countries like the United States of America (US) seems to be heading towards a trajectory that indicates a health care crisis. This is in stark contrast to the downward trajectory in Europe, China, and elsewhere in Asia, where the number of new cases has seen a decline ahead of an anticipated second wave. A data-driven approach reveals three key strategies in tackling COVID-19. Our work here has definitively evaluated these strategies and serves as a warning to the US, and more importantly, a guide for tackling future pandemics. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Infection Control/organization & administration , Infection Control/trends , Pandemics , Asia/epidemiology , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19 Testing/standards , COVID-19 Testing/trends , Demography/trends , Economic Recession , Employment/organization & administration , Employment/standards , Employment/trends , Europe/epidemiology , History, 21st Century , Humans , Infection Control/methods , Infection Control/standards , Public Health Administration/methods , Public Health Administration/standards , Public Health Administration/trends , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Travel-Related Illness , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, is a coronavirus that is highly pathogenic and virulent. It spreads very quickly through close contact, and so in response to growing numbers of cases, many countries have imposed lockdown measures to slow its spread around the globe. The purpose of a lockdown is to reduce reproduction, that is, the number of people each confirmed case infects. Lockdown measures have worked to varying extents but they come with a massive price. Nearly every individual, community, business, and economy has been affected. In this paper, switching strategies that take into account the total "cost" borne by a community in response to COVID-19 are proposed. The proposed cost function takes into account the health and well-being of the population, as well as the economic impact due to the lockdown. The model allows for a comparative study to investigate the effectiveness of various COVID-19 suppression strategies. It reveals that both the strategy to implement a lockdown and the strategy to maintain an open community are individually losing in terms of the total "cost" per day. However, switching between these two strategies in a certain manner can paradoxically lead to a winning outcome-a phenomenon attributed to Parrondo's paradox.